TUNIS — The board of the Central Bank of Tunisia left its policy rate unchanged at 7 percent at its meeting on Wednesday, 29 July, judging that the risks to inflation remain tilted to the upside even as headline price growth continues to slow.

The decision, announced in a statement on the bank's website, was widely expected. Inflation fell to 5.3 percent in June, helped by a slowdown in fresh food prices, which rose 11.2 percent year on year against 13.2 percent the month before. Administered prices rose 1.3 percent, barely moved from 1.2 percent in May.

The figure the board dwelt on was a different one. Core inflation — the measure that strips out fresh food and administered prices, and the one central bankers watch to judge whether disinflation is real — held at 5 percent for a third consecutive month. Headline inflation is falling because of tomatoes and peppers; underlying price pressure has not moved.

The energy line that explains the rest

The external accounts told the sharper story. Tunisia's current account deficit widened to 4,241 million dinars in the first half of 2026, or 2.3 percent of GDP, against 2,844 million dinars — 1.6 percent of GDP — a year earlier. The deficit, in other words, grew by roughly half in twelve months.

One line accounts for it. The energy import bill reached a record 8,502 million dinars over the same six months. Excluding energy, the current account ran a surplus of 2,538 million dinars.

That is the arithmetic behind this summer's rolling blackouts, the record demand on the grid during the July heatwave and the state's fuel purchases abroad: they are not separate stories from the exchange rate and the price level. They are the same story, entering the national accounts through a single line.

Tunisia nonetheless met its international obligations. The 700 million euro Eurobond issued in 2019 matured in July and was repaid, ending the country's presence on the euro-denominated sovereign market. After that outflow, net foreign assets stood at 23.4 billion dinars on 28 July — the equivalent of 92 days of imports.

What the board asked for, and from whom

The statement is unusually direct about the limits of monetary policy. Preserving price stability, the board wrote, requires "a coherent and convergent contribution from all economic policies" — a formulation that places responsibility for the outcome well beyond the central bank's own instruments.

It named three things specifically: keeping liquidity, public spending and domestic demand in line with the economy's productive capacity; rebuilding foreign exchange earnings; and reducing the energy deficit structurally rather than absorbing it each year with reserves. It also called for reforms to strengthen productive supply, encourage investment, and improve energy and food security.

The critical reading is that holding the rate is the only lever the BCT has left, and that on its own terms it is not the decisive one. A 7 percent policy rate does nothing about an 8.5 billion dinar fuel bill. It does not build a power station, and it does not raise export earnings.

The outlook

The board's own list is a reform agenda by another name, and every item on it belongs to the government rather than the bank. The measures it points to — structural reduction of the energy import bill, external resources raised on appropriate terms, investment in productive capacity — are the same ones the country has been discussing for a decade.

The near-term test is narrower. With the last euro-denominated bond retired, Tunisia's external debt schedule eases; the question is whether the reprieve is used to rebuild reserves and cut the energy bill, or simply to carry the same structure into next year at a slightly lower interest cost.